54
| 2012 aNNual rEpOrT prySmiaN grOup
REFERENCE SCENARIO
CONSOlidaTEd FiNaNCial STaTEmENTS >
DIRECTORS’ REPORT
The macroeconomic environment was weak in 2012, causing a
general slowdown in most of the world economies and some
countries, especially in Europe, to enter into recession.
In particular, economic activity in the first part of the year
continued to expand at a sluggish pace, continuing the
downward trend already seen in the second half of 2011 with
stagnation in Europe and a gradual diminution in emerging-
market growth. The macroeconomic environment deteriorated
further in the second and third quarters of 2012, reflecting
a weakening in economic activities in both advanced and
emerging markets as well as uncertainties over fiscal policy
in the United States, over the evolution of demand in BRIC
nations and developments in the Eurozone sovereign debt
crisis. Investor concerns about the political situation in
Greece and instability of the Spanish banking system have
been augmented by the difficulty displayed by European
governments in finding a system of shared governance to
address the crisis in Europe. This uncertainty has led to a
further reduction in industrial production and investment in
many countries. The risks to the global economy eased slightly
in the latter part of the year following the agreement reached
in the United States to avoid the possible negative effects
of the fiscal cliff and the lessening of financial tensions in
the Eurozone thanks to the measures taken by central banks
to support the banking system. However, despite general
stabilisation in the macroeconomic environment, the dynamics
of the global economy have remained generally weak, with
unemployment rates still high in many developed economies
and industrial production stagnant or declining in several
others. The forecasts for global trade growth in 2013 have been
gradually revised down, with world output only expected to
strengthen more significantly in 2014.
Overall, despite the complex political and macroeconomic
scenario, global demand in 2012 nonetheless reported an
increase: in fact, global GDP grew by +3.2%* on the previous
year (compared with 2011 growth of +3.9%* on 2010), driven by
MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO
* Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update - January 2013
Despite a general stabilisation, the global
economy remained weak in 2012. Growth
estimates have been gradually revised down,
with an upturn in global expansion only
expected in 2014.
