INSIGHT 2|2019

TRACKING THE FUTURE FOR MAJOR GLOBAL CITIES, THE ONLYWAY IS UP I n 1985, two billion people lived in cities. This number is presently at four billion, and should reach some six billion by 2050. According to figures from the UN, 54% of the world’s population currently lives in cities and this figure is predicted to reach 68% by 2050. Recent figures from the World Research Institute reveal that urban areas are expected to increase in size by 80% between 2018 and 2030. All these people need to be housed. In many cases, cities can’t easily expand geographically … so the only alternative is up. By introducing taller buildings, cities can increase population density and provide more living space without expanding into adjacent and often unsuitable areas. Numerous cities in China and the Middle East are housing their growing populations this way. Technology breakthroughs could make it faster, easier and less costly to build higher. Jonathan Auerbach at Columbia University in New York and PhyllisWan at Erasmus University Rotterdam in the Netherlands have researched historical patterns of growth in skyscraper construction and predicted future patterns. They believe that by 2050 there will be 6,800 skyscrapers per billion people — significantly more than the current 800 per billion. They also predict that the tallest buildings in 2025 will be around 50% taller than today. Many cities are seeing people returning to their centres. Younger generations want to live near their work and a variety of urban activities, while older people often move back from the suburbs for practical reasons, such as proximity to stores and services. Therefore, many cities are seeing a return to high-rise living, making the most of costly land and offering services and facilities close together. An exponential increase in global urban population is not the only key driver for taller buildings. Cities also introduce tall buildings in order to stand out and attract new residents. Companies and professionals want to be located close together, as high concentration stimulates innovation and economic development. What’s more, compact living and shared facilities can also support sustainability. 6,800 skyscrapers per billion people by 2050 26 | Prysmian Group I N S I G H T