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Dell’Oro: Broadband Access & Home Networking Five-Year Forecast Report

Dell’Oro: Broadband Access & Home Networking Five-Year Forecast Report

Significant growth predicted for PON FTTH, broadband cable access and fixed wireless customer-premises equipment sales.


“Fibre infrastructure buildouts are resulting in more new subscribers and more CPE with advanced Wi-Fi technologies as service providers look to differentiate their services in increasingly crowded markets,” says Jeff Heynen, Vice President at market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
“We’ve made significant upward revisions to our long-term broadband and home networking forecast.”

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Jeff Heynen

Vice President at market research firm Dell’Oro Group

A recent report from Dell’Oro Group predicts that sales of PON equipment for FTTH deployments, cable broadband access equipment, and fixed wireless customer-premises equipment will all increase from 2022 to 2026. According to the group, this is driven by service providers looking to expand the reach of their fixed broadband services to customers’ homes as well as the quality and reliability of those services within homes.

“I think the biggest surprise was the resilience of PON equipment spending throughout the forecast period adds Jeff. “We are seeing so many operators jump in and make commitments to passing millions of homes and businesses through the end of the decade. When you combine that demand with the current shortages in components and labour, it will extend the spending cycle beyond the level of our previous expectations.

Jeff sees two factors in particular really driving growth beyond keeping up with the competition.

  • Government subsidization of fibre networks to bridge the digital divide and connect rural and underserved communities.

“These funding efforts—particularly in the US, but also in countries throughout Europe, Southeast Asia, and South America, will continue to pour massive amounts of money into the broadband market over the next 3-5 years.”

  • Increased valuations of fibre networks.

“For years, owning network infrastructure was thought to be bad, since most revenue was being generated from over-the-top services. But the tide has turned and owning fibre access networks is very lucrative. Private operators are able to use the increased valuations of their fibre networks to generate more capital to expand their buildouts.”

PON equipment revenue is expected to grow from $9.3bn in 2021 to $13.6bn in 2026. This will be driven largely by XGS-PON deployments in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Caribbean and Latin America regions. Revenue for Fixed Wireless CPE is expected to reach $5.1 B by 2026, led by shipments of 5G sub-6GHz and 5G Millimetre Wave units. Revenue for Cable Distributed Access Equipment (Virtual CCAP, Remote PHY Devices, Remote MACPHY Devices, and Remote OLTs) is expected to reach nearly $1.3 B by 2026, as operators ramp their DOCSIS 4.0 and fibre deployments.

Jeff adds: “Broadly speaking, the pandemic ignited a spending cycle in broadband that was, frankly, long overdue. Now, with so many operators making upgrades and expansions, the increased competitive environment is forcing all broadband providers to respond in kind!”

About Dell’Oro Group

Dell’Oro Group is a market research firm that specializes in strategic competitive analysis in the telecommunications, enterprise network, data center infrastructure, and network security markets. Our firm provides in-depth quantitative data and qualitative analysis to facilitate critical, fact-based business decisions. For more information, contact Dell’Oro Group at +1.650.622.9400 or visit www.delloro.com.

The Dell’Oro Group Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year Forecast Report provides a complete overview of the Broadband Access market with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, and port/unit shipments for Cable, DSL, PON, and Fixed Wireless equipment. Covered equipment includes Converged Cable Access Platforms, Distributed Access Architectures, DSL Access Multiplexers, PON Optical Line Terminals, Customer Premises Equipment, and Residential WLAN Equipment, including Mesh Routers.

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Jeff Heynen, Vice President

Jeff Heynen joined Dell’Oro Group in 2018, and is responsible for the Broadband Access and Home Networking market research program. Mr. Heynen has expanded the Broadband Access and Home Networking areas to include fixed wireless CPE, virtual CCAP, Remote PHY, remote MACPHY, and DOCSIS 4.0 infrastructure. Mr. Heynen’s research and analysis has been widely cited in leading trade and business publications. Mr. Heynen is a frequent expert judge and invited speaker at industry conferences and events.